Hurricane Helene forecast to explode into catastrophic Category 4 ahead of Florida landfall

By Mary Gilbert, Taylor Ward, Emma Tucker and Dalia Faheid, CNN 7 minute read Updated 8:41 PM EDT, Wed September 25, 2024 romo.jpg See what it looks like in Jamaica as Hurricane Beryl batters the country 01:28 VIDEO THUMBNAIL Extreme heat explainer 1 This is what happens to your body when temperatures soar 03:24 thumbnail bangladesh flooding 1.jpg Homes submerged after Bangladesh suffers monsoon flooding 00:32 NM_Storms_16x9.00_00_06_29.Still001.jpg Video shows mudslide after thunderstorms hit New Mexico 00:30 02 Hurricane Helene.jpg Hurricane Helene is growing. Here’s what you should know 01:09 still_20898816_820340.551_still.jpg CNN meteorologist explains tool used to track real-time data for hurricanes 02:11 CT flood.jpg Dramatic video shows emergency water rescue as severe flooding slams the Northeast 02:32 FLOODING.jpg Video: Deadly flash flood sweeps Connecticut, New York 01:22 greek wide thumb.jpg Authorities evacuate residents near Athens as wildfires spread 00:31 tornado thumb.jpg Video shows tornado ripping roof off structure in New York 00:32 thumb1.jpg Driver rescued after flood overtakes her car in Florida 00:31 thumb wide heat chamber 4.jpg CNN reporter went into a heat chamber. She lost enough sweat to fill two soda cans 02:23 109275_alligator backyard tropical storm debby Clean.00_00_18_05.Still001.jpg Watch: Tropical Storm Debby has alligators swimming in people’s backyards 00:37 Dollywood Flood Thumb.jpg See heavy rain flood Dollywood theme park 00:40 nm flood thumb.jpg Watch: Flash flooding causes evacuations in New Mexico town 00:30 RenameThisHorizontal Clean.00_00_29_09.Still004.jpg Video shows Hurricane Beryl causing major floods in Texas 00:40 romo.jpg See what it looks like in Jamaica as Hurricane Beryl batters the country 01:28 VIDEO THUMBNAIL Extreme heat explainer 1 This is what happens to your body when temperatures soar 03:24 thumbnail bangladesh flooding 1.jpg Homes submerged after Bangladesh suffers monsoon flooding 00:32 NM_Storms_16x9.00_00_06_29.Still001.jpg Video shows mudslide after thunderstorms hit New Mexico 00:30 02 Hurricane Helene.jpg Hurricane Helene is growing. Here’s what you should know 01:09 still_20898816_820340.551_still.jpg CNN meteorologist explains tool used to track real-time data for hurricanes 02:11 CT flood.jpg Dramatic video shows emergency water rescue as severe flooding slams the Northeast 02:32 FLOODING.jpg Video: Deadly flash flood sweeps Connecticut, New York 01:22 CNN — Hurricane Helene is now forecast to reach catastrophic Category 4 strength by the time it makes landfall in Florida on Thursday, the National Hurricane Center says, with storm surge potentially climbing to 20 feet along some parts of the coast. Helene could be the strongest hurricane to hit the United States in over a year – and time is running out for those in its path to prepare. “Preparations to protect life and property from storm surge and damaging winds along the Florida Big Bend coast should be rushed to completion today,” the center warned. Helene rapidly intensified into a hurricane Wednesday and will continue strengthening as it crosses over the record-warm water of the Gulf of Mexico. Rapidly intensifying storms like Helene are becoming more frequent in a world warming due to fossil fuel pollution. Wind speeds in the storm are expected to reach at least 130 mph by Thursday afternoon, but the hurricane center noted “additional strengthening is possible” in the hours before landfall. The center of the hurricane – where the most dangerous winds are – is expected to make landfall around Apalachicola on Thursday evening. But its fearsome eye is only part of the story. Hurricane Helene will grow into a massive, sprawling monster as it tracks north – one that won’t just slam Florida, but also much of the Southeast. Thousands of Florida residents have already been forced to evacuate and nearly the entire state is under alerts as the storm threatens to unleash flooding rainfall, damaging winds and life-threatening storm surge. The National Weather Service in Tallahassee described the storm surge threat for Apalachee Bay as “catastrophic and/or potentially unsurvivable” in an update Wednesday. A car is submerged in flooded streets in flooding caused by Hurricane Helene in Quintana Roo, Mexico, on Wednesday. A car is submerged in flooded streets in flooding caused by Hurricane Helene in Quintana Roo, Mexico, on Wednesday. Governor of Quintana Roo Mara Lezama/X A man pushes a cart on a flooded street during rainfall caused by Helene, in Cancun, Mexico, September 25, 2024. A man pushes a cart on a flooded street during rainfall caused by Helene, in Cancun, Mexico, September 25, 2024. Paola Chiomante/Reuters The hurricane unleashed its fury on parts of Mexico’s Yucátan Peninsula and Cuba Wednesday. Flooding rainfall plunged cars underwater in parts of Mexico’s state of Quintana Roo while powerful ocean waves pounded the coastline. Helene’s strong winds also knocked out power to more than 50,000 people in western Cuba’s province of Pinar del Río. Areas in Helene’s future track could see worse. The hurricane will be the fourth to make landfall in the US this year and the fifth storm to slam storm-weary Florida since 2022. “If you’re a godly person, pray, because I don’t really need this,” Port Richey resident Rick Way told CNN affiliate WFTS of the potential flooding Helene could bring. “Neither do any of us.” But this storm will be different than Hurricane Idalia and other recent storms to strike the state. Helene is forecast to grow into one of the largest storms in the Gulf of Mexico over the last century, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry. The hurricane’s wind field could be big enough to stretch from Washington, DC, to Indianapolis. That means more storm surge and more widespread impacts, even with the center of the storm well away from the coast. The storm’s sprawl brought rain and tropical storm-force wind gusts to parts of the Florida Keys Wednesday afternoon and will spread north and east across the state from there, reaching the Tampa area by Wednesday night. Tropical rainfall and strong gusts could spread over a large portion of the Peninsula by Thursday morning. Hurricane-force wind gusts will follow closely behind for areas along the coast, including in the Tampa area by Thursday night. Here are the latest developments: • Storm’s size increases risk of life-threatening storm surge: The Big Bend area faces up to 20 feet, the most serious storm surge threat. Up to 8 feet of surge could inundate Tampa, and threaten high water records in the area, while much of South Florida could get up to 5 feet. Water levels could soar to record heights in Tampa Bay and Clearwater on Thursday night, reaching 1 to 2 feet higher than the records Hurricane Idalia set last year. The threat has forced mandatory evacuations in at least 15 coastal Florida counties. • Power outage fears in Georgia: The threat of power outages due to Helene will be “significant” and “like nothing we’ve seen,” Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Director James Stallings said Wednesday. Winds and rain from the hurricane will affect the entire state, he said, and with the ground already saturated from a current weather system, trees could topple from the heavy winds, causing major outages. • Five states under emergency declarations: The governor of Virginia declared a state of emergency Wednesday, joining four other states – Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina. • Air travel disruptions: Helene is already causing disruptions in air travel, with more to come as the storm intensifies. More than 600 flights have been canceled for Thursday, according to FlightAware. Most were departing out of Tampa International Airport, which announced it is suspending all commercial and cargo operations on Thursday. Flights out of Fort Myers, Clearwater, Sarasota and Tallahassee are heavily impacted as well. ‘Never seen this before’: Meteorologist on the growing strength of Hurricane Helene 02:44 - Source: CNN Helene is huge and threatens the entire Southeast Coastal areas typically bear the brunt of a hurricane, but that might not be the case with Helene. Tropical alerts span hundreds of miles from South Florida to Tennessee and southern South Carolina because of its size. Hurricanes typically lose strength quickly once they move over land, where they lose the warm water that feeds them, but Helene will remain more intact well inland because it will be both strong at landfall and moving quickly. As a result, the storm is forecast to still be a hurricane in Georgia Friday morning, nearly 150 miles from where it makes landfall. That’s bad news for Tallahassee, Florida, just inland from where the storm is forecast to make landfall. City officials warned Helene “could be the worst storm in the history of the City of Tallahassee.” “If our community remains central in Helene’s path, as forecasted, we will see unprecedented damage like nothing we have ever experienced before as a community,” Tallahassee mayor John E. Dailey said Wednesday. The storm is currently forecast to pass just to the west of Tallahassee as a 130 mph Category 4 storm. If it does so, it’ll be the strongest storm on record to track within 30 miles of the city since the late 1800s. At a news conference Wednesday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis urged residents to implement their emergency plans and prepare supplies, but to “not evacuate hundreds of miles” away due to the size and speed of the storm. The Florida Division of Emergency Management has partnered with Uber to provide free rides to shelters for Floridians in counties with a declared state of emergency, he added. “Remember, you hide from wind, but you run from the water,” the governor said. In Hernando County, located along the state’s west-central coast, the county commissioner told residents under evacuation orders to “get out now.” The county could see up to 12 feet of flooding from storm surge in “the most significant forecast that we’ve come up against,” said Commissioner Brian Hawkins. “We’re talking about single-story homes that could be completely covered with water if the predictions are true. I can’t stress it enough. I’m asking everybody, please stay safe. Do the right thing, make a plan and evacuate,” Hawkins said. By Thursday evening, tropical storm-force winds will spread over more of the Southeast and, along with soaking rainfall, could bring down trees and trigger widespread power outages. Atlanta could have wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph during the day Thursday that strengthen to 50 to 60 mph overnight. Helene’s winds could be “life-threatening” and possibly cause “extensive impacts across portions of central Georgia,” the National Weather Service in Atlanta warned Wednesday. “This could be an unprecedented event for north and central Georgia given the expected track and strength of Helene.” Georgia activated its national guardsmen and the state operations center in preparation for the landfall. Residents are being advised to stay off the road as the storm approaches and crews work to clear the roads, Stallings, the state’s emergency management and homeland security director, said. Helene could produce historic flooding in mountainous areas of the Southeast far removed from the coast. Flooding caused by rainfall has become the deadliest threat of tropical systems in the last decade. The storm will combine with heavy rain ahead of it Wednesday to raise concerns of “widespread impactful flooding” including “potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding,” the Weather Prediction Center warned Wednesday. A level 3 of 4 risk of flooding rainfall is in place Thursday for portions of Florida and Georgia – including Atlanta – Alabama and the Carolinas. A rare level 4 of 4 high risk encompasses a smaller area from northeastern Georgia to the far western Carolinas, where more than a foot of rain could fall through Friday. The potential for “major to catastrophic flooding” is becoming more likely where the heaviest rain falls, the National Weather Service in Greenville, South Carolina, warned Wednesday. Helene could also produce a tornado anywhere from Florida through much of the Carolinas Thursday. Ahead of Helene’s threats, Florida’s major theme parks announced closures for Thursday, including a full closure in Busch Gardens, Tampa Bay, Universal Orlando’s Volcano Bay and Disney’s Typhoon Lagoon Water Park. A drone view shows people filling up sandbags at Joe DiMaggio Sports Complex in Clearwater, Florida, ahead of Hurricane Helene on September 25, 2024. A drone view shows people filling up sandbags at Joe DiMaggio Sports Complex in Clearwater, Florida, ahead of Hurricane Helene on September 25, 2024. Marco Bello/Reuters CNN’s Amy Simonson, Susannah Cullinane, Rebekah Riess, Eric Zerkel, Joe Sutton, Sara Smart, Monica Garrett, Brandon Miller, Gene Norman and Ross Levitt contributed to this